Samsunspor vs Goztepe
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-17 · 20:30 CET
WDWLL
LDLLLThe score model made a Samsunspor win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.33 – 1.14 Goztepe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 39.2% | 42.1% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Goztepe win | 30.2% | 29.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 48.3% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 28.1% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 53.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.0% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Samsunspor 40.6 / Goztepe 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.