Besiktas vs Eyupspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-16 · 20:30 CET
DWLWW
DLLWLThe score model made a Besiktas win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Besiktas 1.81 – 0.85 Eyupspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 58.6% | 68.3% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 19.1% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Eyupspor win | 15.8% | 12.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 61.4% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 40.3% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 53.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 42.0% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Besiktas 43.8 / Eyupspor 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.