Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-16 · 18:00 CET
WWLDL
LLWWWThe score model made a Basaksehir win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Basaksehir 1.49 – 0.65 Kocaelispor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basaksehir win | 56.1% | 58.8% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Kocaelispor win | 14.5% | 16.3% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 48.4% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 27.3% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.4% | 48.1% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 32.6% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Basaksehir 43.8 / Kocaelispor 22.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.