Konyaspor vs Rizespor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
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DWLWLThe score model made a Konyaspor win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Konyaspor 1.55 – 1.24 Rizespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor win | 42.8% | 39.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 29.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Rizespor win | 28.9% | 31.7% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 50.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 30.4% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 56.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 34.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Konyaspor 43.6 / Rizespor 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.