Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
WDWDD
LDWLWThe score model made a Trabzonspor win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kasimpasa 1.35 – 1.69 Trabzonspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 29.1% | 24.7% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.2% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Trabzonspor win | 44.0% | 49.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 52.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 31.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 55.3% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 35.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kasimpasa 43.6 / Trabzonspor 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.