Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-15 · 20:30 CET
LDWLW
LDWLWThe score model made a Gaziantep win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gaziantep 1.33 – 1.29 Alanyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 36.0% | 38.0% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 29.0% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Alanyaspor win | 34.2% | 33.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 47.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 27.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 53.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 32.7% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gaziantep 43.7 / Alanyaspor 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.