Sariyer vs Boluspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
WDLDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Sariyer win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sariyer 1.45 – 0.97 Boluspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sariyer win | 47.0% | 75.4% | -28.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 16.1% | +12.7% | ✗ |
| Boluspor win | 24.1% | 8.5% | +15.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 59.9% | -16.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 39.0% | -16.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 44.1% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 41.5% | -11.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sariyer 29.9 / Boluspor 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sariyer vs Boluspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.