Bandirmaspor vs Umraniyespor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-18 · 15:00 CET
LWDLL
WDLWWThe score model made a Bandirmaspor win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bandirmaspor 1.38 – 0.72 Umraniyespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandirmaspor win | 51.4% | 53.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 25.7% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Umraniyespor win | 18.5% | 21.0% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.1% | 50.7% | -15.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.2% | 29.8% | -13.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | 52.0% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 33.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bandirmaspor 49.5 / Umraniyespor 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bandirmaspor vs Umraniyespor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.