Sivasspor vs Manisa FK
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-24 · 20:30 CET
LDLDW
WDDLLThe score model made a Sivasspor win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sivasspor 1.27 – 1.05 Manisa FK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 40.4% | 43.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 27.4% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Manisa FK win | 29.4% | 29.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 50.9% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 30.4% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 55.2% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 34.6% | -1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sivasspor 26.3 / Manisa FK 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.