Bandirmaspor vs Keciorengucu
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-23 · 16:00 CET
DDDLW
WDDWWThe score model made a Bandirmaspor win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bandirmaspor 1.39 – 1.08 Keciorengucu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandirmaspor win | 43.0% | 36.4% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 29.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Keciorengucu win | 28.2% | 34.1% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 46.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 26.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 52.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 31.9% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bandirmaspor 47.1 / Keciorengucu 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.