Karagumruk vs Umraniyespor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
WWDDL
LDDLLThe score model made a Karagumruk win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karagumruk 1.35 – 0.80 Umraniyespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk win | 49.0% | 57.3% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 25.3% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Umraniyespor win | 21.1% | 17.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 46.0% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.1% | 25.8% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | 46.8% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 31.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karagumruk 13.6 / Umraniyespor 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.