Erokspor vs Sariyer
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-14 · 20:30 CET
DDLDL
DLWWLThe score model made an Erokspor win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Erokspor 1.57 – 0.79 Sariyer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erokspor win | 54.9% | 50.4% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Sariyer win | 18.0% | 23.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 49.7% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 29.0% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 52.4% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 34.1% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Erokspor 39.3 / Sariyer 25.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.