Igdir FK vs Karagumruk
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-09 · 18:00 CET
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WWDDLThe score model made an Igdir FK win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Igdir FK 1.14 – 1.10 Karagumruk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igdir FK win | 35.5% | 38.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.7% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Karagumruk win | 33.6% | 32.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 49.2% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 28.8% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 55.1% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 33.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Igdir FK 37.8 / Karagumruk 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.