Bandirmaspor vs Istanbulspor AS
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
DDDLW
DLDLLThe score model made a Bandirmaspor win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bandirmaspor 1.39 – 1.03 Istanbulspor AS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandirmaspor win | 44.3% | 42.3% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Istanbulspor AS win | 27.1% | 28.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 45.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 25.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 51.2% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bandirmaspor 46.6 / Istanbulspor AS 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.