Prachuap vs Sukhothai
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-13 · 13:00 CET
WWWLL
DLLWLThe score model made a Prachuap win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Prachuap 1.81 – 0.80 Sukhothai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prachuap win | 60.1% | 60.9% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 23.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Sukhothai win | 14.8% | 15.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 53.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 33.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 50.4% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 36.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Prachuap 35.3 / Sukhothai 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.