Chonburi vs Rayong FC
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
LDDWL
DWLDWThe score model made a Chonburi win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chonburi 1.76 – 1.20 Rayong FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chonburi win | 49.2% | 53.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.8% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Rayong FC win | 24.7% | 21.3% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 51.5% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 31.1% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 52.6% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chonburi 26.3 / Rayong FC 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.