Ratchaburi vs Bangkok Utd
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-11 · 14:00 CET
LWWLW
DWDWLThe score model makes a Ratchaburi win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ratchaburi win — 45.1% vs 33.6% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ratchaburi 1.58 – 1.18 Bangkok Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratchaburi win | 45.1% | 33.6% | +11.6% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 28.9% | -1.0% |
| Bangkok Utd win | 26.9% | 37.5% | -10.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 51.9% | +0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 32.0% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 56.1% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.2% | -1.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ratchaburi 35.7 / Bangkok Utd 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.