Port MTI FC vs Lamphun Warrior
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-11 · 13:30 CET
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LDDDLThe score model makes a Port MTI FC win the most likely outcome at 73%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Port MTI FC 2.37 – 0.73 Lamphun Warrior.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port MTI FC win | 72.9% | 71.1% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 18.4% | 18.4% | +0.0% |
| Lamphun Warrior win | 8.7% | 10.5% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 59.5% | +0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 39.5% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 47.9% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 41.2% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Port MTI FC 35.7 / Lamphun Warrior 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.