Buriram vs Chiangrai Utd
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-09-11 · 13:00 CET
WLLDW
WWDWWThe score model made a Buriram win the most likely outcome at 81%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Buriram 2.82 – 0.68 Chiangrai Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram win | 80.6% | 78.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.8% | 14.5% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Chiangrai Utd win | 5.6% | 6.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 63.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% | 44.6% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 42.5% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 44.6% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Buriram 35.8 / Chiangrai Utd 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.