Vaduz vs Sion
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
LLWLD
WDLWDThe score model makes a Sion win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Vaduz win — 34.7% vs 29.1% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vaduz 1.66 – 1.87 Sion.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaduz win | 34.7% | 29.1% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.4% | -1.0% |
| Sion win | 43.0% | 47.5% | -4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 67.9% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 48.5% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | 68.4% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.5% | 47.3% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vaduz 10.9 / Sion 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vaduz vs Sion in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.