Lausanne vs Lugano
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lausanne 1.01 – 1.55 Lugano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne win | 24.5% | 25.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Lugano win | 49.6% | 49.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 54.9% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 33.8% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 57.1% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 37.2% | -10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lausanne 45.6 / Lugano 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lausanne vs Lugano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.