Young Boys vs Servette
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made a Young Boys win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Young Boys 2.15 – 1.53 Servette.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Boys win | 51.8% | 59.7% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Servette win | 27.3% | 19.1% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.2% | 68.2% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.2% | 48.5% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | 64.9% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 48.3% | +1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Young Boys 48 / Servette 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Young Boys vs Servette in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.