Sion vs Zurich
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
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DWDWWThe score model made a Sion win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sion 2.03 – 1.01 Zurich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sion win | 60.9% | 64.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 19.7% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Zurich win | 17.9% | 15.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 70.1% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 50.5% | -14.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 63.3% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 48.3% | -7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sion 43.2 / Zurich 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sion vs Zurich in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.