Luzern vs Grasshoppers
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
DLWLL
DWLLLThe score model made a Luzern win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Luzern 2.15 – 1.23 Grasshoppers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luzern win | 58.2% | 55.9% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 21.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Grasshoppers win | 21.1% | 22.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 71.8% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.7% | 52.7% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 69.1% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 49.3% | -9.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Luzern 48.1 / Grasshoppers 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Luzern vs Grasshoppers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.