Lugano vs Zurich
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
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LLWLDThe score model made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugano 1.82 – 0.90 Zurich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 58.9% | 61.5% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 21.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Zurich win | 17.8% | 17.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 60.8% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 40.3% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 57.4% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 42.0% | -9.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lugano 46 / Zurich 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.