Lausanne vs Young Boys
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
DLLDL
DWDWDThe score model made a Young Boys win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lausanne 1.45 – 1.95 Young Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne win | 28.6% | 27.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.2% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Young Boys win | 48.9% | 50.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | 68.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 48.8% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 67.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 47.3% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lausanne 43.3 / Young Boys 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.