Thun vs Young Boys
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-01 · 20:30 CET
LLWDL
DWDWDThe score model made a Thun win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 0:6 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Thun 2.32 – 1.64 Young Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thun win | 52.7% | 35.7% | +17.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 24.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Young Boys win | 26.9% | 40.0% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.7% | 66.9% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.0% | 47.1% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 73.1% | 68.1% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.8% | 46.1% | +4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Thun 26.7 / Young Boys 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.