Basel vs Lausanne
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
WWDLL
DLLDLThe score model made a Basel win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Basel 1.80 – 1.10 Lausanne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basel win | 53.3% | 48.8% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Lausanne win | 22.7% | 26.9% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 62.5% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.2% | 42.1% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 63.5% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 42.9% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Basel 45.8 / Lausanne 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.