Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Ouchy
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-06 · 19:30 CET
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WDWDWThe score model makes a Lausanne Ouchy win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 63.7% vs 57.9% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 0.96 – 2.11 Lausanne Ouchy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais win | 14.8% | 14.6% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 19.4% | +3.4% |
| Lausanne Ouchy win | 62.4% | 66.0% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 61.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 42.1% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 42.1% | -5.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stade Nyonnais 46.1 / Lausanne Ouchy 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Ouchy in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.