Kriens vs Rapperswil-Jona
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-06 · 19:30 CET
DWDLD
WWLDLThe score model makes a Kriens win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kriens win — 53.1% vs 39.9% implied (+13.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kriens 2.16 – 1.42 Rapperswil-Jona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kriens win | 53.1% | 39.9% | +13.2% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.7% | -0.5% |
| Rapperswil-Jona win | 23.8% | 36.4% | -12.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 66.9% | +2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.0% | 47.8% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | 68.3% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.0% | 45.3% | +3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kriens 10.8 / Rapperswil-Jona 31.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kriens vs Rapperswil-Jona in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.