Xamax vs Rapperswil-Jona
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-09-18 · 19:30 CET
LWLWD
LWWLDThe score model made a Xamax win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Xamax 1.94 – 1.52 Rapperswil-Jona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xamax win | 46.5% | 49.7% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Rapperswil-Jona win | 29.4% | 27.1% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 68.5% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 48.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 67.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.2% | 47.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Xamax 48.2 / Rapperswil-Jona 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Xamax vs Rapperswil-Jona in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.