Varnamo vs Norrkoping
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
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WWDWWThe score model makes a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Norrkoping win — 68.4% vs 50.9% implied (+17.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnamo 0.73 – 2.09 Norrkoping.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varnamo win | 11.4% | 24.5% | -13.1% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 24.5% | -4.4% |
| Norrkoping win | 68.4% | 50.9% | +17.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 61.3% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 41.1% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 61.8% | -15.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 42.4% | -6.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Varnamo 23.7 / Norrkoping 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Varnamo vs Norrkoping in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.