Sandviken vs Nordic United
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WLDWL
LLWLWThe score model makes a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.7% vs 56.7% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 1.85 – 1.16 Nordic United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 52.9% | 55.0% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.8% | +1.1% |
| Nordic United win | 23.2% | 22.3% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 63.5% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 43.3% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 62.2% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 43.9% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sandviken 42.2 / Nordic United 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sandviken vs Nordic United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.