Helsingborg vs Norrby
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
LDLDD
LDWLLThe score model made a Helsingborg win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helsingborg 1.57 – 1.18 Norrby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helsingborg win | 45.9% | 43.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Norrby win | 28.1% | 29.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 53.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 32.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 57.3% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 36.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Helsingborg 43.9 / Norrby 20.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Helsingborg vs Norrby in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.