Sandviken vs Orebro
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-19 · 17:00 CET
DWLDW
WDLDDThe score model made a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 1.75 – 1.10 Orebro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 52.2% | 41.3% | +10.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 26.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Orebro win | 23.3% | 31.8% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 55.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 34.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 58.8% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 38.2% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandviken 40.6 / Orebro 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sandviken vs Orebro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.