Oster vs Norrkoping
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-19 · 13:00 CET
WLLWW
WDWWDThe score model made a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oster 0.91 – 1.58 Norrkoping.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oster win | 21.1% | 24.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 23.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Norrkoping win | 52.6% | 52.1% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 63.8% | -18.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 43.6% | -19.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 63.4% | -15.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 43.2% | -2.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oster 30.9 / Norrkoping 20.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oster vs Norrkoping in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.