Sandviken vs Sundsvall
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 13:00
The score model makes a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 1.81 – 1.00 Sundsvall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 56.1% | 53.4% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.9% | -1.3% |
| Sundsvall win | 20.3% | 21.7% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 55.9% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 35.1% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 56.4% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 38.3% | -6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandviken 36.3 / Sundsvall 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.