Brage vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 15:00
The score model makes a Brage win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.57 – 1.34 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 42.5% | 38.2% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.3% | -1.1% |
| Landskrona win | 32.3% | 35.5% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 58.1% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 37.3% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 61.5% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 39.5% | +1.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 41 / Landskrona 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.