Brage vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 17:00 CET
DLLLD
DDDWLThe score model made a Brage win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.57 – 1.35 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 42.1% | 38.2% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Landskrona win | 32.6% | 35.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 58.0% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.5% | 36.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 61.6% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.5% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 40.8 / Landskrona 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.