Sundsvall vs Falkenberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-07-26 · 15:00 CET
LDLWW
DWLWLThe score model made a Falkenberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 1.13 – 1.48 Falkenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 28.6% | 26.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Falkenberg win | 45.0% | 46.9% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 55.1% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 34.5% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 57.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 37.9% | -10.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sundsvall 31.3 / Falkenberg 20.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.