Kalmar vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
LLWLL
WWDLLThe score model makes a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalmar 1.27 – 1.69 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar win | 28.7% | 28.5% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.8% | -1.9% |
| Sirius win | 47.3% | 45.6% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kalmar 30.6 / Sirius 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kalmar vs Sirius in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.