Goteborg vs Malmo FF
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
WDDDL
WLDWLThe score model makes a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Malmo FF win — 40.5% vs 33.5% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.35 – 1.48 Malmo FF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 34.4% | 39.7% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.8% | -1.7% |
| Malmo FF win | 40.5% | 33.5% | +6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 57.3% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 37.0% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 60.9% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 39.3% | -3.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Goteborg 43.8 / Malmo FF 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Goteborg vs Malmo FF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.