Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-08 · 16:30 CET
WLWDL
LDLLWThe score model makes a Brommapojkarna win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Brommapojkarna win — 44.3% vs 34.8% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.56 – 1.27 Mjallby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna win | 44.3% | 34.8% | +9.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.4% | -1.5% |
| Mjallby win | 30.8% | 38.8% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brommapojkarna 43.7 / Mjallby 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.