Orgryte vs Vasteras SK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 17:30 CET
LWDLL
LWLWWThe score model makes a Vasteras SK win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Vasteras SK win — 54.1% vs 41.3% implied (+12.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orgryte 1.22 – 1.94 Vasteras SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte win | 23.8% | 32.8% | -9.0% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.9% | -3.8% |
| Vasteras SK win | 54.1% | 41.3% | +12.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 55.6% | +5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.0% | 35.0% | +4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 59.1% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 37.7% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Orgryte 22.2 / Vasteras SK 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Orgryte vs Vasteras SK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.