Hammarby vs Elfsborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-06 · 19:00 CET
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WWDDDThe score model makes a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hammarby win — 63.5% vs 60.9% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby 1.99 – 0.86 Elfsborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 63.5% | 60.9% | +2.6% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.2% | -1.0% |
| Elfsborg win | 15.3% | 16.9% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hammarby 42.8 / Elfsborg 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hammarby vs Elfsborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.