Sirius vs Halmstad
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-03 · 19:00 CET
WWDLL
WLLWLThe score model makes a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 59.1% vs 54.0% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.32 – 0.93 Halmstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 68.3% | 73.2% | -5.0% |
| Draw | 18.3% | 16.3% | +2.0% |
| Halmstad win | 13.4% | 10.5% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 66.5% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 46.0% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 53.2% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 46.1% | -3.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sirius 43 / Halmstad 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sirius vs Halmstad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.