GAIS vs AIK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-02 · 19:00 CET
LWLLD
LLDWDThe score model makes a GAIS win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: AIK win — 27.0% vs 23.8% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GAIS 1.44 – 1.03 AIK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAIS win | 46.5% | 51.4% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 24.8% | +1.7% |
| AIK win | 27.0% | 23.8% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GAIS 38.9 / AIK 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open GAIS vs AIK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.