Mjallby vs GAIS
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
DDLDL
DLWLLThe score model made a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.14 – 1.00 GAIS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 38.5% | 35.0% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.1% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| GAIS win | 31.2% | 38.0% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 53.8% | -17.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 32.9% | -16.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.2% | 58.3% | -15.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.2% | -11.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 41.6 / GAIS 37.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mjallby vs GAIS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.