Kalmar vs Hacken
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-20 · 14:00 CET
LLLWL
DWWWWThe score model made a Hacken win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalmar 1.30 – 1.56 Hacken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar win | 31.7% | 33.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Hacken win | 43.0% | 39.5% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 33.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 58.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 36.8% | +4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalmar 28.3 / Hacken 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kalmar vs Hacken in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.