Degerfors vs Hammarby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Degerfors 0.80 – 1.97 Hammarby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors win | 14.1% | 10.9% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 17.6% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Hammarby win | 64.7% | 71.5% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 61.6% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 40.5% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 49.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 41.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Degerfors 34.9 / Hammarby 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Degerfors vs Hammarby in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.