Orgryte vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-19 · 17:30 CET
LLLWD
WWWDLThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orgryte 1.39 – 2.62 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte win | 18.4% | 15.7% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.0% | 19.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Sirius win | 63.6% | 64.8% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.3% | 62.8% | +13.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.9% | 42.7% | +14.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | 58.0% | +11.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 43.3% | +6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orgryte 17.8 / Sirius 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Orgryte vs Sirius in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.